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Tuesday 24 May 2011

WHO WILL BE THE NEXT CHIEF MINISTER? - Part One.

Part One - Candidates 3-6 to come .......
Favourites; Outside bets & Senator Ben Shenton?

Tonight in the first of a three part posting I look at the question of who will succeed Senator Terry Le Sueur as Chief Minister after the October election. Of course it would be very easy to write reams about this subject and the plethora of other issues that underlie it. For example the desperate need for a reformed ‘open’ Chamber vote.

But keeping this to the style I am advised best suits the internet .  I’ll be keeping this short and (occasionally) sweet within a few brief self-explanatory headings.

I will, of course, be discussing all of this in much more detail nearer the election. But in part one we start with the two alleged favourites. Senator Philip Ozouf and Senator Ian Le Marquand.

Candidate 1:
 
Senator Philip Ozouf

Betting odds
Evens

Inclusive government rating (out of 10) 
Minus 1






Political direction
Though this may surprise many people I actually get on very well with Philip. We both respect that the other works very hard and, like me, he at least wears his political colours on his sleeve. This I will always respect over the spineless populists who appear to have no real political perspective other than rampant populism and/or head-nodding subservience in the hope of getting re-elected and gaining office.

I’m nevertheless forced to be quite honest. In my view should Philip be elected Chief Minister Jersey will, as a consequence, get the most right-wing, free-market fundamentalist driven ‘government’ in our history. Those of us on the inside know that Philip already pulls nearly all of the strings – and believe me, he is very adept at it too. Awarded the official mandate of Chief Minister, however, policy direction will quickly make Margaret Thatcher look like a Socialist!

Consequence of election
Jersey will continue on its present course – a course based entirely on the doctrine of unregulated, free-market fundamentalist political ideology. Issues such as whether or not such policy is really appropriate and workable for a small jurisdiction; and one with an increasingly at risk main industry will be simply swept aside. Diversifying the economy will likely remain just words on a Strategic Plan. Commitment to population control will be non-existent.

Finance and wealthy tax evaders – both overt individuals and those hiding behind ‘non-local’ companies etc will continue to be the tail that wags the political dog. Public services will continue to be eroded and ultimately destroyed to be privatised. Public sector workers’ terms and conditions will be hugely undermined. The living standard of the ‘average’ man and woman in the street will reduce. The elderly will find it ever more difficult to live rather than simply ‘exist’.

All of the above in the interest of cosseting the super wealthy and big business from the real world - or should I say ‘from a fair world’.

Cabinet certainties
If re-elected (let’s hope not for Jersey’s sake!) Deputy Eddie Noel to be Treasury Minister; Angela Juene to be Minister for Health & Social Services! If these prospects don’t frighten the life out of you in themselves then I strongly suggest you visit your GP to check that you are not already dead! Elsewhere Senator Alan MacLean to continue at Economic Development. Senator Paul Routier at…Education!

Achilles heel to gaining Chamber support
May not be able to get over the finishing line due to many – even on the political right – not liking his domineering style, Many such Members, of course, would never have the backbone to tell Philip this to his face. The fact that the Chamber vote is still currently in secret, however, may be the thing that finally scuppers his ambition.

Would I serve in a Senator Ozouf led Executive?
Only if Philip stunned us all by appointing ‘Progressives’ to a full 50% of Ministerial posts.  Well, we can always hope…


Candidate 2:

Senator Ian Le Marquand



Betting odds
Evens

Inclusive government rating (out of 10)
 5




Political direction
Ian is someone that I have always got on well with even before the 2008 election. Hence my huge disappointment that he allowed such a partisan, one-sided mess of an ‘investigation’ into the suspension of Graham Power. Indeed, before the election Ian always made a point of telling me that he was a ‘mixture of left and right’. And, so he said, had much in common politically with me

Perhaps should he actually become Chief Minister he will be able to regain some of the significant ground lost with those of us committed to genuine social justice and rise above the limiting, right-wing ‘group think’ that dominates this present Executive.  We need to see some hard evidence of a commitment to both Discrimination laws and Freedom of Information.

The truth from colleagues I talk too is that the jury is still out following the Power/HDLG affair. Has the opportunity to make a real and hugely beneficial change of political direction for Jersey by pulling away from the discredited and redundant elitist policies of the Horsefall/Walker/Le Sueur & Ozouf clique. Could he do it? Only if he is big enough to appoint on the tandem basis of ability and social awareness rather than right-wing cronyism as has been the case since 2005.

Consequence of election
As I indicate above, this very much depends on Senator Le Marquand’s willingness to attempt to bring about genuine inclusive government. There are a significant number of very capable people in the States who have been completely frozen out – quite deliberately so – under Senator Terry Le Sueur. This simply because they would not be willing to support the shameless policy of appeasing the Finance industry at every threat; likewise the Island’s super wealthy. Should Ian not have that political backbone then the sad reality is that Jersey will continue on its present course and the opportunity will be lost.

Cabinet certainties
There are only three certainties if Ian becomes Chief Minister. Deputy Jackie Hilton (if re-elected) would be offered her choice of either Home Affairs or Housing. Senator Philip Ozouf would be offered to stay on at the Treasury. Deputy Ian Gorst (if re-elected) would continue at Social Security.  The big question of whether it would be a bright new future or simply more of the same would be who fills the others…

Achilles heel to gaining Chamber support
As indicated above - lost a huge amount of confidence from the twelve to fifteen ‘Progressives’ due to his handling of the Power suspension. In what is likely to be a close run thing those twelve to fifteen votes (if all re-elected) will make or break his appointment

Would I serve in a Senator Le Marquand led Executive?
Yes. However, a first proviso to me saying this is that I really want to see Senator Le Marquand put down some markers. Firstly, with firm commitments on Discrimination and Freedom of Information. Secondly, the official publication of Mr. Graham Power’s ‘defence’ to a ‘prosecution’ that never resulted in any charges - yet was portrayed as unquestionable fact. Thirdly, to quickly answer some very serious doubts regarding issues such as the Wiltshire Report expenses and the involvement of BDO. Lastly…I want the ESC Ministry (if re-elected) as I’m honest enough to say that I believe that I am the best person for the job!

52 comments:

  1. Woah! Spot on about the destruction that will follow if Philip Ozouf takes the crown! The end of public services as we have known them.

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  2. You certainly don't pull any punches do you. But don't you ever worry that you might ruffle our leaders feathers a little too much? The sad thing is your assessment of a government under Philip is probably not far short of the truth.
    I would have to go for Ian Le Marquand out of the two. But his questionable commitment to tacking discrimination by getting the law through is fair comment too.

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  3. You won't get education - you have no background in farming.

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  4. I am surprized there is no mention of Senator Le Marquand's religous views given consideration. Not from a personal perspective but how this appears to influence his voting on issues relating to civil partnerships for example. A Chief Minister must surely be above this type of attitude?

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  5. Trevor

    Interesting post once again. Can you tell me this Do you not agree that neither Senator should be considered for Chief Minister as both will have no current election mandate from the public? Does anyone else feel this way?

    Thank you.

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  6. So who are the other contenders? Could a new candidate come straight in and take the job? I don't think this would be good but then Le Marquand has only been in three years.

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  7. In all honesty Trevor the thought of either of the two above frightens the HELL out of me and the future of the ordinary person in the street.

    You have actually portrayed them both very well. On balance I would opt for PO. The lurching from one disaster to another by ILEM regarding the Harper/Power/BDO etc fiasco's, and his inability to engage or produce credible answers would look well to a bigger audience (the outside world), moreso an embarrassment.

    Actually, forget the ESC Ministry Trevor, you would be the best person for the CM job!!!

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  8. Anonymous #2:

    I don't think it is quite right that a Chief Minister should be "above" acting in accordance with how his religion shapes his conscience. It is more that we need a Chief Minister whose values are generally acceptable to most of us, which, as an atheist and secular humanist, I would hope is not a fundamentalist Christian package.

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  9. Trevor.

    Neither of these two, in my opinion, would make for a competent Chief Minister that would have the confidence of the public.

    Senator Ozouf, in the 2008 elections had lost 40% of his votes from 2005. He's broken at least 3 promises since then and 10,000 people have signed a petition to get rid of him.

    Senator Le Marquand, after his absolutely disgraceful handling of the unlawful suspension of Graham Power QPM, his kangaroo court of publishing a prosecution case without the defence case, I could go on but we would be here all night.

    In the meantime have a look at this interview with Deputy Bob Hill concerning his SERIOUS COMPLAINT

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  10. Forget the Treasury Minister and his ferret food we were hearing about in the GST debate. What do they feed you Pitbulls on? Heard Shona on the Beeb giving Philip a right good going over about the need to exempt healthy food!

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  11. I don't understand how Senator Ozouf thinks he can make decisions like gST that hurt the poorest people - people who generally live in small flats in St. Helier.He didn't even come in the top 6 in the senators election in St. Helier did he. You beat him and so did Geoff Southern and Alan Breckon. Ian Le Marquand as well.

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  12. Shona made Ozouf sound so ordinary and desperate on the radio earlier nice work Shona let's have more of that.

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  13. Senator Ozouf's excuses really were what you might call threadbare nonsense. So he might look at it in the future will he? Who does he think he is kidding? This council of ministers has no intention of fair taxation. Deputy Shona Pitman also had him bang to rights when she pointed out how our esteemed health minister had said in the States that this was already being worked on. For the record I was not even wholly convinced about taking GST off all food, but attempting to change peoples behaviour by giving them an incentive to buy healthier foods is just plain logic. Like Shona saaid it will also save the taxpayer a fortune in the long run. What bit of saving out money don't you understand senator??

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  14. Who would Senator Le Marquand choose as his Health Minister do you think? To me this is one department that has really been sold short for many years. Andrew Green used to be at the Hospital did he not so what about him?

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  15. TOM GRUCHY says

    Whoever finally wins this particular beauty pageant to be the chief politician in Jersey, the public will be the last to know about it.

    What a disgrace it is that those who seek this office do not declare until the last possible minute or until it suits them. The fact that they are supposed to be offering to serve the public is of so little importance. The process is entirely a matter of personal choice.

    Not only is this yet another manifestation supporting the prima donna tradition in Jersey politics but it makes it so much more difficult for others to plan their own campaigns.

    Jersey does not have political parties. But at least one result of such organised groups is that leaders or potential leaders have to be selected and agreed by popular assent at an early stage by the membership. In such an arrangement the leader is mandated on the basis of known and declared policies. If necessary, the party can remove a failed leader.

    If there was a public vote in the choice of the CM that would overcome the problem to some degree. It should not be at the whim of individuals to declare an intention when it suits them.

    The same problem arises to some extent with other elections for all States Members. Those already serving have an advantage by declaring as late as possible so that potential candidates are kept uncertain where to stand
    until the last possible moment.

    Potential candidates have been known to be waiting until close of business on nomination day in the past. It will be interesting to see if this year's General Election might encourage early declarations so that the election process is run more for the public interest rather then the tactical interests of candidates.

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  16. Ann Dupre for next chief minister what do you think?

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  17. Interesting study. But you don't mention Philip Ozoufs usurping the functions he had an Economic Development and going on promotional business trips to the Middle East and Asia (something TLS never did) - he will surely play the "international statesman" card for all its worth, against other candidates, just as surely as Frank Walker did so earlier.

    The other factor which may be relevant, especially for candidates who support him standing in the next election, is his mobilisation of online resources. He has a very glossy website, updated on a regularly basis, and also Tweets to engage with the wider public. That may not count too much in the States, but he can argue that he is not remote, and he is switched on to new technology, which again other candidates may not be. Remember Harold Wilson's White Heat of the Technological Revolution which he used to confound his opponents?

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  18. Do most people think that these two really are the only options? Trevor seems to be suggesting that apart from Ozouf and Le Marquand anyone else is an outsider or longshot. He may well be right but I will be interested to learn who the others are that Trevor, and anyone else for that matter, considers potential candidates in some shape or form.

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  19. Not directly to do with the story but given Senator Ozouf is a part of it I just wanted to say this. Removing GST from healthy foods is the most sensible idea I have heard in the whole GST debate. It is just so sensible. Lets get this done and then move on.

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  20. Like to echo the "well dones" to Shona for bringing back her healthy food exemptions proposition. Like to get rid of the whole horrible tax but I can't see this happening now to be honest. Healthy food stuffs do make a lot of sense though as mr Pond says.

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  21. Trevor.

    Couldn't agree more with Rico's COMMENT. How can anybody be considering a vote for Ian Le Marquand? The Bloke should be doing a life stretch in a Siberian Labour camp. Just read a fraction of any one of the links Rico put on his comment and tell me ILM is a credible candidate to run this island, and shouldn't be jailed.

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  22. Deputy Trevor Pitman25 May 2011 at 21:10:00 BST

    Well, VFC. Following on from my own highlighted provisos, Rico has thrown down the gauntlet in fine fashion. It is now time for the Senator to step up to the plate and answer those questions.

    As I said, it would be the 'progressive' vote that makes or breaks his bid to be Chief Minister. So if he wants to potentially secure any of those votes - and I haven't talked about candidates 3,4,5 & 6 yet - he needs to get on his e-mail to Rico pretty quickly.

    *having some minor glitches with settings but hopefully be back to normal soon

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  23. Sadly, the guess who is going to be the next Chief Minister game does nothing to prevent the suggested candidates from getting there. We are agreed that their policies do not differ significantly. If Ozouf is CM, ILM will stay in Home Affairs, and if it’s ILM then Ozouf is Treasury Minister. I really have no interest in deciding if I want to be ruled over by ideologues of the right – a choice between a Theocracy or a Capitalist oligarchy; I want to see a popular opposition created that will represent the social and economic interests of working people. The formation of that popular opposition should be our primary concern. Leave the issue of political leadership of the capitalist interest to them. Our mission should be to mobilize the 70% to 80% of islanders, who currently abstain from voting, to engage in the democratic process. Without their engagement nothing will ever change.

    There is unprecedented discontent amongst working people over social and economic issues such as inadequate and unaffordable housing, rising unemployment, rising prices, inflation and wages that remain stagnant or are falling. This discontent needs to be mobilised and focused in the creation of a party of opposition. How we achieve that should be the subject of discussion here on the net, in public halls and on the street.

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  24. Perhaps you 'progressives' ought to consider not voting on the Chief Minister, at least in the final round. You will not have acceded to the charade.

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  25. dear deputy,
    re; my first comment

    It is not that jersey seems to be run as a business
    here's proof that the states of jersey is a proper legally incorporated company.

    you can go to graydon.co.uk and for your email address you'll get a company report for soj,
    it's a bit old now but gives the general structure.

    The implications of our government being regulated by commercial law are profound,

    maybe,at the next states sitting you could ask 'sir' who owns soj inc.
    and where does it file it's annual return?

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  26. Ozouf - No Thanks!26 May 2011 at 15:56:00 BST

    I have heard mr Ozouf again today demanding that very sensible calls for making healthier food cheaper must be withdrawn. The man sounds both a bully and increasingly desperate. I'm glad to see you would only serve in an Ozouf government if he gave 50% of the minissterial positions to Progressives like yourself. If you had anything less I would wonder if I really should be voting for you. Keep up the efforts. We will get there in the end.

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  27. The Zouf really does sound rattled by this healthy food move. What will be most ineresting is to see if the health minister backs it. If she doesn't then someone really should put in a vote of no confidence in her.

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  28. SENATOR OZOUF

    ST. HELIER DID NOT WANT YOU IN 2008 (7TH?)

    WE DON'T WANT YOU NOW

    TAKE A HINT AND TAKE A HIKE

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  29. Hi

    Thanks for the comments all. I hope to get a post up in the next couple of days briefly answering some of the interesting points and questions that have come up.

    Thanks for all the interest over the first two weeks of the blog. It is appreciated.

    Trevor

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  30. Hello Trev

    Sorry to fill your blog up with questions relating to the Mrs but maybe you can shed some light on a story I heard this morning.

    Rumour has it that following his very poor showing on the BBC the other day when Deputy Shona Pitman really gave him a taste of his own medicene seems like our great would be leader refused to shake her hand and stormed off in a strop. Love to know if this is true.

    Talk about mature politics LOL!

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  31. Listened to Shona on the talkback programme and she owned Shenton's brother - top job Shona - let's have more of it.

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  32. Ho, ho Shona is getting more kudos than you these past few days. Are you jealous?

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  33. I heard Talkback tonight. Where was the Health Minister? Why was this Shenton there anyway? he just kept repeating the same mantra. Live in the real world Mr Shenton - even your dopey brother agrees that food should not be subject to taxation.

    PS Sounds like Shona has been eating red meat lately! I thought I had heard she was a veggie?

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  34. Trevor.

    Credit to Shona she got her point across very well on Talkback, and in my opinion, won the day. Although Mr. Shenton came across well also and pleased that he agreed paying the shamed and discredited Ogley and Pollard £800,000 was a shameful waste of tax payers money.

    It must be said that I couldn't disagree when MR. Shenton said that the politicians time would be better spent getting their own house in order first.

    Here's the States telling the less well-off pensioners etc that they have to pay tax on their loaf of bread because money's tight but they can give the best part of a million quid to a couple of disgraced Civil Servants.

    How the hell can they (Pollard and Ogley) walk away with that kind of money? Serious questions need to be asked, no scrub that "ANSWERED."

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  35. VFC

    Totally agree. Questions WILL be asked. Remember I also - finally - managed to extract the information that a further SIX individuals shared more than £250.000 outside of contract obligations upon leaving the States! Just why and who the Chief Minister is yet to answer.

    We also allow multi-millionaires - more than two dozen of them - to pay less tax than their cleaners. All whilst Senators Ozouf and Le Sueur are talling us that we really MUST tax Granny Smith's (sorry, couldn't resist!) apples at 5%!

    This Council of Ministers stand for double standards, a two-tier society and are nothing more than apologists for greed. Quite frankly they should go. NOW!

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  36. Another six sharing more than a quater of a million? How can this happen? A contract is a contract for most of us. This makes me sick.

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  37. Anonymous #32 asks if I am jealous?

    I would imagine you are joking. But if not the answer is obviously no. Shona works very hard. In fact she probably has a consituent portfolio that is in the top three biggest of all States Members.

    Her proposition along the lines of healthy food exemptions should have gone through back in 2008. Strange how now there are suddenly so many who were against it then now saying it is the way to go.

    Wonder what could have changed...

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  38. 'Tom Gruchy' makes the point about the need for a public vote for Chief Minister. I could not agree more. Shona tried this a few years ago.

    Of course we got every excuse under the sun as to why it shouldn't happen. One such excuse, I seem to recall, was that States Members not the public were the best placed to make that choice! I seem to remember almost choking on my cup of tea as I listened to the debate in my office.

    Something that I didn't include in my blog about Senators Ozouf and Le Sueur having intended too was that I personally feel that no politician should be able to become Chief Minister if they don't have a mandate from the public from the most recent election.

    Don't know if 'Tom' agrees but that seems absolute sense the way I look at it. That way no more automatic 'successions'.

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  39. The Chief Minister's role should definitely be decided by a public vote. I accept that we don't have a party system in place at present but, the role is just too important to be chosen by a collection of people who may very well be close friends. Even worse voting the way they do out of self interest.

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  40. Dearie me! I am obviously in the minority here but I still would vote for Philip Ozouf. Having said that I completely disagree with his stance on taxing food. A

    s Deputy Shona Pitman and Senator Breckon have both argued in putting forward their proposals it is immoral and there clearly are alternatives yet to be fully examined. To have wiidespread support taxation must be seen to be fair. GST is not.

    Thats my four pennies worth anyway.

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  41. Mr Nick Corbel is bang on in the Rag tonight when he says these huge golden handshakes apparently paid out Mr Ogley and Mr Pollard are a disgrace. So Ozouf and le Sueur think we have to have increased GST and should accept it without a murmur because there is no other option? I hope somebody will be big enough to take them to task and ask serious questions.

    What planet do these people live on? They treat us like fools and yet we idiots come on sites like these and tell us such politicians should be trusted? Trevor, there are only around a dozen of you in the States worth voting for. What can we do to put an end to this hypocrisy and contempt?

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  42. Come on Big Trev you're normally the first to get a question in. Something has got to be asked about the Ogley and Pollard HUSH money.

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  43. Oops! Sorry I'm so angry I missed out a 'get' before the word idiots. Makes my blood boil just thinking of it all when I know good people who have been made redundant. Ozouf and Le Sueuer should be told to stuff their public sector cuts where the sun don't shine.

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  44. Hi Anonymous

    Just because I'm not sat at a computer screen all day and all night like some doesn't mean I'm not working, you know.

    Questions about this terrible waste and abuse of taxpayers' money are already lodged - both a written one and an oral. I'll try and get them all up over the weekend.

    I really understand the anger displayed following on from this. At least it certainly casts a nice bright light on Philip Ozouf's pathetic spin that 'we have no money'.

    Funny how we always seem to have money when it comes to looking after those at the top.

    As people are obviously sending in their thoughts on the man who seems hell bent on wrestling away Senator Le Sueuer's title as the worst Treasury Minister/President of all time (come on, be fair, Terry wasted enough of our money to wipe out a whole pay freeze and knock a half per cent off GST when he botched the Incinerator contract) let's put this into perspective.

    The fact is this all shows so much hypocrisy, as a poster says, that the Senator really ought to resign. 'Tax the poor to cosset the rich' this is obviously now the Establishment Party's official maxim; fitting hand-in-hand with the need to try and control everything.

    If readers have any doubts just consider the utter tripe Philip and co came up with at the last sitting, desperate to control the machinery of government review process, rather than let Members support Montford Tadier's proposals. Their proposition and excuses were ludicrous.

    Worse still, for those who were not there the sight of Senator Ozouf running frantically out of the Chamber to try and round up the sixteen Members who had vanished - Ben Shenton had departed several hours before as usual - to try and win the vote would be funny if it wasn't so damning of our Council of Ministers and their followers contempt for democracy.

    And on a final point for now - yes a different Anonymous, I can confirm that having had his lame excuses soundly thrashed on the radio Philip apparently did refuse to shake Shona's hand when she offered it.

    Toys and pram spring to mind...

    Trevor

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  45. Give us a golden handshake Terry!27 May 2011 at 22:29:00 BST

    I think both Senators le Sueuer and ozouf should do the decent thing and stand down.

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  46. I think they should be sacked. I am serious.

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  47. Why don't you stand for Chief Minister seeing as you are so bloody full of yourself?

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  48. Yo Big Trev. You should stand.

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  49. Nick Palmer for Chief Minister!

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  50. Nick palmer for Chief Minister? Certainly beats the prospect of Phil or Ian.

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